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Post by cobrien18 on Jan 14, 2015 21:18:42 GMT -6
The MDC will be February 14th at MSU. CMU, SVSU, GVSU, and MSU are all confirmed attending. Davenport may attend.
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Post by GVSU-Bailey on Feb 6, 2015 14:35:03 GMT -6
For those wondering, the schedule for MDC is as follows:
10:30-11:45 MSU v SVSU 11:45-1:00 CMU v GVSU 1:00-2:15 MSU v GVSU 2:15-3:30 SVSU v CMU 3:30-4:45 MSU v CMU 4:45-6:00 SVSU v GVSU
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Post by Zigmister on Feb 13, 2015 15:23:46 GMT -6
My Predictions.
SVSU def MSU 3-2 GVSU def CMU 3-1 GVSU def MSU 5-0 CMU def SVSU 2-1 (upset call) CMU def MSU 3-2 OT (overtime call) GVSU def SVSU 4-1
In terms of Gonzalez Rating Strengths, MI is part of the best. Four of the top six in the Gonzalez Standings. That being said, the rating disparity between GVSU (#1) and MSU (#6) at home is still 10 points. GVSU is just so far ahead of the pack. Six points ahead of 6. SVSU/CMU (2.835 difference) I call as my upset. Reading the strengths behind the ratings allows you to really feel when an upset can do some great work for the team. I think CMU winning this match will boost them greatly. CMU/MSU (1.040 difference) This is incredibly close, especially with MSU's official home turf advantage. It could go either way, it could even be likely to result in an Overtime.
For CMU and MSU, this is the best chance of the season to get upset wins against two very highly ranked opponents in the Valleys. If they can swing the results, there are some heavy comparative gains to be had.
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Post by Zigmister on Feb 13, 2015 15:24:30 GMT -6
and the stuff behind the above, using the Gonzalez Rating System:
GVSU: 60.202 Gonzalez Rating + 3 points for home advantage (#1 in Gonzalez Standings) SVSU: 54.057 Gonzalez Rating (#2) CMU: 51.222 Gonzalez Rating (#4) MSU: 47.182+3=50.182 Gonzalez Rating (home adv) (#6)
SVSU def MSU 54.057 v 47.182+3 1 * (0.1 * ((47.182+3) - (54.057)) + 1) = 0.612 as predictable exchange in favor of SVSU 1 * (0.1 * ((54.057) - (47.182+3)) + 1) = 1.388 as upset exchange in favor of MSU
GVSU def CMU 60.202 v 51.222 1 * (0.1 * ((51.222) - (60.202)) + 1) = 0.102 as predictable exchange in favor of SVSU 1 * (0.1 * ((60.202) - (51.222)) + 1) = 1.898 as upset exchange in favor of CMU
GVSU def MSU 60.202 v 47.182+3 1 * (0.1 * ((47.182+3) - (60.202)) + 1) = -0.002 = 0.010 as predictable exchange in favor of GVSU 1 * (0.1 * ((60.202) - (47.182+3)) + 1) = 2.002 = 2.000 as upset exchange in favor of MSU
SVSU def CMU 54.057 v 51.222 1 * (0.1 * ((51.222) - (54.057)) + 1) = 0.716 as predictable exchange in favor of SVSU 1 * (0.1 * ((54.057) - (51.222)) + 1) = 1.284 as upset exchange in favor of CMU
CMU def MSU 51.222 v 47.182+3 1 * (0.1 * ((47.182+3) - (51.222)) + 1) = 0.896 as predictable exchange in favor of CMU 1 * (0.1 * ((51.222) - (47.182+3)) + 1) = 1.104 as upset exchange in favor of MSU
GVSU def SVSU 60.202 v 54.057 1 * (0.1 * ((54.057) - (60.202)) + 1) = 0.385 as predictable exchange in favor of GVSU 1 * (0.1 * ((60.202) - (54.057)) + 1) = 1.615 as upset exchange in favor of SVSU
Potential Final Ratings: GVSU: 60.202 to 60.814 (#1) SVSU: 54.067 to 54.815 (#2) CMU: 51.222 to 51.383 (#4) MSU: 47.182 to 45.651 (#6)
This is if there are no upsets, and initial ratings are continuously rolled. In my individual match predictions, I used the Gonzalez Ratings of the teams before the start of the event. The actual formula is rolling, it doesn't have this restriction.
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Post by Zigmister on Feb 14, 2015 1:00:29 GMT -6
Using an Isolated Perrone Formula for Season 2015
Perrone Standings at start of the MDC (includes the BEAST results as chronologically it occurs before the MDC.)
GVSU
73.500 Perrone Points (1st) 1.000 Win Loss Percentage (T-1st) 7.494 Perrone Average (1st in Perrone Standings) Offer on W/L/OTL: +4/-1.25/+1.05
CMU
57.050 Perrone Points (2nd) 0.731 WLP (4th) 6.812 Perrone Average (3rd in Perrone Standings) Offer on W/L/OTL: +3.25/-1.5/+0.95
MSU
35.700 Perrone Points (4th) 0.522 WLP (7th) 6.254 Perrone Average (4th in Perrone Standings) Offer on W/L/OTL: +3.25/-1.5/+0.95
SVSU
4.250 Perrone Points (8th) 0.500 WLP (T-8th) 5.448 Perrone Average (8th in Perrone Standings) Offer on W/L/OTL: +3.25/-1.5/+0.95
SVSU v MSU WLP: 0.571 v 0.462 SVSU W/L/OTL Take: +3.25/-1.5/+0.95 MSU W/L/OTL Take: +3.25/-1.5/+0.95
GVSU v CMU 1.000 v 0.690 GVSU Take: +3.25/-1.5/+0.95 CMU Take: +4/-1.25/+1.05
GVSU v MSU 1.000 v 0.462 GVSU Take: +3.25/-1.5/+0.95 MSU Take: +4/-1.25/+1.05
CMU v SVSU 0.690 v 0.571 CMU Take: +3.25/-1.5/+0.95 SVSU Take: +3.25/-1.5/+0.95
CMU v MSU 0.690 v 0.462 CMU Take: +3/-1.625/+0.925 MSU Take: +3.25/-1.5/+0.95
GVSU v SVSU 1.000 v 0.571 GVSU Take: +3.25/-1.5/+0.95 SVSU Take: +4/-1.25/+1.05
At the start of the event in the Perrone System, CMU/SVSU/MSU are offering the same take (+3.25/-1.5/+0.95 on a W/L/OTL). Their WLP are so close to each other, forcing them both into the C tier of Perrone Point Offers. MSU and SVSU barely fall within the tier. MSU will probably offer a lower take for later matches, as a result of two potential losses in SVSU and GVSU.
The Perrone Formula doesn't excel at prediction of strength to the same degree as the Gonzalez formula; the Perrone stands with quality win component. GVSU is offering the most, so anyone to knock their undefeated record will take a hefty batch of Perrone Points.
Potential Final Ratings:
GVSU
83.250 Perrone Points (1st) 1.000 Win Loss Percentage (T-1st) 7.541 Perrone Average (1st in Perrone Standings)
CMU
62.050 Perrone Points (2nd) 0.724 WLP (4th) 6.785 Perrone Average (3rd in Perrone Standings)
MSU
31.450 Perrone Points (4th) 0.462 WLP (7th to 8th) 5.990 Perrone Average (4th to 6th in Perrone Standings)
SVSU
4.750 Perrone Points (8th) 0.429 WLP (8th to 9th) 5.372 Perrone Average (8th in Perrone Standings)
This is if there are no upsets, and initial ratings are continuously rolled. In my individual match Takes, I used the team's Perrone Point Offers before the start of the event. The actual formula is rolling, it doesn't have this restriction.
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