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Post by BeeTrain on Dec 17, 2014 22:38:34 GMT -6
Tournament: JMU's Big East-Appalachian Super Tournament or more aptly named BEAST IV.
Date: Saturday, February 14, 2014
Location: The ever so picturesque campus of James Madison University. More specifically, the University Recreation Center (UREC) on campus.
Address of UREC: 701 Driver Drive, Harrisonburg, VA 22801
Recommended Parking Lots: Convo D or G, D8, C9, P web.jmu.edu/parking/parkingmap.pdf << Parking/Building Map
Look for "University Recreation Center" if you are parking in a Convo lot or D8, just follow the paths towards the front of UREC. If you are parking in C9 or P, you will have to walk through the tunnel that cuts under I-81 and you should see the entrance off to your left.
Teams Attending: JMU is looking to host as many teams as possible. As of now, teams attending are:
James Madison University[JMU] - VA - Confirmed: Host
Tournament Fees: Last year, our tournament fees were $20. Please expect that fees will be around that amount for this year's tournament.
Lodging: For the best place to stay in Harrisonburg in respect to UREC, parties, and distance from the highway is the Days Inn off of 81. With traffic, it is about a 5 minute drive to UREC.
If you are looking for literally the cheapest hotel possible, I would check the Motel 6 on East Market. Rates have varied but rooms have been as low as $45 a night.
Social: There will most likely be a social following this event at one of our member's apartment or townhouse.
Schedule: Starting time will be 9am or 10am Saturday morning. Finish time will depend on how many teams attend the tournament.
Match schedule will be released closer to the event.
Lunch: JMU will not be providing food for other teams; however, there are many options for food both on-campus as well as off-campus. If you are unfamiliar with the food scene around Harrisonburg and would like a list of close restaurants, please contact me.
Information Packet: Info packet will be released closer to the event
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Post by UMD Dodgeball on Dec 17, 2014 23:53:02 GMT -6
UMD is interested in attending.
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Post by william on Dec 18, 2014 1:45:52 GMT -6
Penn State will likely attend
-William Deutsch
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Post by ssmith19 on Dec 23, 2014 12:17:25 GMT -6
Towson will be there
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Post by adeperroksu7 on Feb 6, 2015 1:39:05 GMT -6
Ken'ts going as well...better late than never
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Post by GVSU-Bailey on Feb 11, 2015 11:47:59 GMT -6
Schedule is as follows:
9:00am Akron v UMD Kent State v Towson
10:15am JMU v Akron UMD v Towson
11:30am JMU v Towson JMU JV v Kent State
12:45pm UMD v Kent State JMU JV v Akron
2:00pm JMU v UMD Akron v Towson
3:15pm JMU v Kent State JMU JV v Towson
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Post by Zigmister on Feb 12, 2015 3:35:55 GMT -6
Part of my predictions:
UMD def Akron 3-0 Kent def TU 2-1 JMU def Akron 7-0 UMD def TU 2-0 JMU def TU 5-0 Kent def JMU-JV 3-1 UMD def Kent 2-1 JMU-JV def Akron 3-1 JMU def UMD 3-0 TU def Akron 3-0 JMU def Kent 5-0 JMU-JV def TU 4-1
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Post by Zigmister on Feb 12, 2015 3:40:13 GMT -6
and the stuff behind the above, using the Gonzalez Rating System:
JMU: 52.903 Gonzalez Rating + 3 points for home advantage (#3 in Gonzalez Standings) UMD: 45.898 Gonzalez Rating (#5) Kent: 44.068 Gonzalez Rating (#8) TU: 42.538 Gonzalez Rating (#10) Akron: 38.419 Gonzalez Rating (#16)
UMD v Akron 45.898 v 38.419 1 * (0.1 * ((38.419) - (45.898)) + 1) = 0.252 as predictable exchange in favor of UMD 1 * (0.1 * ((45.898) - (38.419)) + 1) = 1.748 as upset exchange in favor of Akron
Kent v Towson 44.068 v 42.538 1 * (0.1 * ((42.538) - (44.068)) + 1) = 0.847 as predictable exchange in favor of Kent 1 * (0.1 * ((44.068) - (42.538)) + 1) = 1.153 as upset exchange in favor of Towson
JMU v Akron 52.903+3 v 38.419 1 * (0.1 * ((38.419) - (52.903+3)) + 1) = -0.748 = 0.010 as predictable exchange in favor of JMU 1 * (0.1 * ((52.903+3) - (38.419)) + 1) = 2.748 = 2.000 as upset exchange in favor of Akron
UMD v Towson 45.898 v 42.538 1 * (0.1 * ((42.538) - (45.898)) + 1) = 0.664 as predictable exchange in favor of UMD 1 * (0.1 * ((45.898) - (42.538)) + 1) = 1.336 as upset exchange in favor of Towson
JMU v Towson 52.903+3 v 42.538 1 * (0.1 * ((42.538) - (52.903+3)) + 1) = -0.337 = 0.010 as predictable exchange in favor of JMU 1 * (0.1 * ((52.903+3) - (42.538)) + 1) = 2.337 = 2.000 as upset exchange in favor of Towson
JMU JV v Kent State
UMD v Kent State 45.898 v 44.068 1 * (0.1 * ((44.068) - (45.898)) + 1) = 0.817 as predictable exchange in favor of UMD 1 * (0.1 * ((45.898) - (44.068)) + 1) = 1.183 as upset exchange in favor of Kent
JMU JV v Akron
JMU v UMD 52.903+3 v 45.898 1 * (0.1 * ((45.898) - (52.903+3)) + 1) = -0.001 = 0.010 as predictable exchange in favor of JMU 1 * (0.1 * ((52.903+3) - (45.898)) + 1) = 2.001 = 2.000 as upset exchange in favor of UMD
TU v Akron 42.538 v 38.419 1 * (0.1 * ((38.419) - (42.538)) + 1) = 0.588 as predictable exchange in favor of TU 1 * (0.1 * ((42.538) - (38.419)) + 1) = 1.412 as upset exchange in favor of Akron
JMU v Kent State 52.903+3 v 44.058 1 * (0.1 * ((44.058) - (52.903+3)) + 1) = -0.185 = 0.010 as predictable exchange in favor of JMU 1 * (0.1 * ((52.903+3) - (44.058)) + 1) = 2.185 = 2.000 as upset exchange in favor of Kent
JMU JV v Towson
There are some close ratings for some matches, but lots more disparity between other matchups. There looks to be fights between: Kent/TU (1.530 difference) and UMD/Kent (1.830 difference) These two are close, and have a possibility to go to OT. Not close enough for me to feel good predicting based on the data, though. And while UMD/TU is the next nearest, at a 3.360 point rating difference the game may be close, but UMD still has a significant strength edge. Statistically, an upset is not as likely.
Potential Final Ratings: JMU: 52.903 to 53.093 (#3 in Gonzalez Standings) UMD: 45.898 to 47.365 (#5) Kent: 44.068 to 44.084 (#8) TU: 42.538 to 41.830 (#10) Akron: 38.419 to 37.454 (#16)
This is if there are no upsets, and intital ratings are continously rolled. In my individual match predictions, I used the Gonzalez Ratings of the teams before the start of the event. The actual formula is rolling, it doesn't have this restriction.
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Post by GVSU-Bailey on Feb 13, 2015 15:48:33 GMT -6
PREDICTIONS:
UMD def Akron 4-0 Kent def TU 2-1 (OT) JMU def Akron 9-0 UMD def TU 2-1 (OT) JMU def TU 4-0 Kent def JMU-JV 3-0 UMD def Kent 2-1 JMU-JV def Akron 5-1 JMU def UMD 4-0 TU def Akron 4-0 JMU def Kent 4-0 TU def JMU-JV 3-1
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Post by Zigmister on Feb 14, 2015 0:01:23 GMT -6
Using an Isolated Perrone Formula for Season 2015
Perrone Standings at start of the BEAST
JMU
32.500 Perrone Points (4th) 1.000 Win Loss Percentage (T-1st) 6.560 Perrone Average (3rd in Perrone Standings) Offer on W/L/OTL: +4/-1.25/+1.05
UMD
12.500 Perrone Points (6th) 0.692 WLP (4th) 5.664 Perrone Average (7th in Perrone Standings) Offer on W/L/OTL: +3.25/-1.5/+0.95
TU
-0.250 Perrone Points (10th) 0.308 WLP (13th) 4.987 Perrone Average (10th in Perrone Standings) Offer on W/L/OTL: +3/-1.625/+0.925
Kent
-1.850 Perrone Points (12th) 0.364 WLP (10th) 4.934 Perrone Average (11th in Perrone Standings) Offer on W/L/OTL: +3/-1.625/+0.925
Akron
-6.500 Perrone Points (18th) 0.000 WLP (T-19th) 4.530 Perrone Average (17th in Perrone Standings) Offer on W/L/OTL: +2.5/-2/+0.875
UMD v Akron WLP: 0.692 v 0.000 UMD W/L/OTL Take: +2.5/-2/+.875 Akron W/L/OTL Take: +3.25/-1.5/+0.95
Kent v Towson 0.364 v 0.308 Kent Take: +3/-1.625/+0.925 TU Take: +3/-1.625/+0.925
JMU v Akron 1.000 v 0.000 JMU Take: +2.5/-2/+.875 Akron Take: +4/-1.25/+1.05
UMD v Towson 0.692 v 0.308 UMD Take: +3/-1.625/+0.925 TU Take: +3.25/-1.5/+0.95
JMU v Towson 1.000 v 0.308 JMU Take: +3/-1.625/+0.925 TU Take: +4/-1.25/+1.05
UMD v Kent State 0.692 v 0.364 UMD Take: +3/-1.625/+0.925 Kent Take: +3.25/-1.5/+0.95
JMU v UMD 1.000 v 0.692 JMU Take: +3.25/-1.5/+0.95 UMD Take: +4/-1.25/+1.05
TU v Akron 0.308 v 0.000 TU Take: +2.5/-2/+.875 Akron Take: +3/-1.625/+0.925
JMU v Kent State 1.000 v 0.364 JMU Take: +3/-1.625/+0.925 Kent Take: +4/-1.25/+1.05
At the start of the event in the Perrone System, Kent/TU are offering the same take (+3/-1.625/+0.925 on a W/L/OTL). Their WLP are so close to each other, forcing them both into the D tier of Perrone Point Offers. Being in the same tier would stand to show that their game may be close.
The Perrone Formula doesn't excel at prediction of strength to the same degree as the Gonzalez formula; the Perrone stands with quality win component. JMU is offering the most, so anyone to knock their undefeated record will take a hefty batch of Perrone Points.
Potential Final Ratings:
JMU
44.500 Perrone Points (4th to 3rd) 1.000 Win Loss Percentage (T-1st) 6.560 Perrone Average (3rd to 2nd in Perrone Standings)
UMD
19.750 Perrone Points (6th) 0.692 WLP (4th) 5.664 Perrone Average (7th to 6th in Perrone Standings)
TU
-2.125 Perrone Points (10th to 12th) 0.333 WLP (13th to T-10th) 4.987 Perrone Average (10th to 12th in Perrone Standings)
Kent
-1.600 Perrone Points (12th to 11th) 0.333 WLP (10th to T-10th) 4.934 Perrone Average (11th to 10th in Perrone Standings)
Akron
-10.875 Perrone Points (18th to 19th) 0.000 WLP (T-19th) 4.530 Perrone Average (17th to 20th in Perrone Standings)
This is if there are no upsets, and initial ratings are continuously rolled. In my individual match Takes, I used the team's Perrone Point Offers before the start of the event. The actual formula is rolling, it doesn't have this restriction.
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